营运驾驶员驾驶事故影响因素仿真研究

（辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院，辽宁葫芦岛125105）

摘要：

为解决营运驾驶员驾驶事故频发的不安全行为问题，基于复杂适应系统( CAS)理论和多主体建模与仿真( ABMS)方法，构建营运驾驶员驾驶事故模型。通过调节车辆状况、管理者管理监督水平、营运驾驶员情绪状态、安全教育水平、驾驶经验和环境综合条件等因素，运用NetLogo仿真平台分析安全管理水平、营运驾驶员安全责任意识、心理负荷水平对驾驶事故的影响。研究表明：营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生系统是一种典型的CAS，营运驾驶员驾驶事故是三大主体属性和行为环境交互的结果，且交互作用程度不同。因此，运输企业要考虑多种因素，采取相应的措施来降低营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生。

关键词：营运驾驶员；驾驶事故；复杂适应系统( CAS)；多主体建模与仿真(ABMS)；Netlogo仿真

中图分类号：X913.4    文献标志码：A    doi: 10. 11731/j．issn．1673 -193x．2015. 08. 023

Simulation research on influencing factors of traffic accidents for commercial drivers

  LI Nai-wen, CUI Hong

 ( College of Business Administration,  Liaoning Technical University,  Huludao Liaoning 125105 , China)

Abstract: In order to solve the problems of traffic accidents caused by unsafe behavior of commercial drivers, a model of traffic accidents for commercial drivers was built based on CAS and ABMS. Through adjusting the factors such as the vehicle condition, the management and supervision level of manager, the emotional state, safety educa-tion level, driving experience of commercial drivers, and the comprehensive environmental conditions, the effects of safety management level, safety responsibility consciousness and mental load level of commercial drivers on the traf-fic accidents were analyzed by using NetLogo platform. The results showed that the occurrence system of traffic ac-cidents for commercial drivers is a typical CAS, the traffic accidents of commercial drivers are the result of interac-tion between three vanous subject and behavior environment, and the interaction extent are different. Therefore, in order to reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents for commercial drivers, the transportation company should consid-er various factors and adopt the corresponding measures.

Key words: commercial drivers; traffic accidents; complex adaptive system( CAS) ; agent-based modeling and simulation ( ABMS) ; NetLogo simulation

结论

    1)营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生系统是一种典型的CAS。通过ABMS技术与NetLogo仿真平台相结合，对营运驾驶员驾驶事故进行仿真，可为运输企业减少营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生提供可行性的解决方案。

2)构建了营运驾驶员驾驶事故模型。研究表明：管理者安全管理水平通过提高对营运驾驶员的管理监督水平来降低其驾驶事故的发生。

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