G-L指数 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
平均值 |
hs01 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
hs02 |
0.0000 |
0.0040 |
0.0000 |
0.0096 |
0.0040 |
0.0059 |
0.0474 |
0.0003 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0055 |
hs03 |
0.8726 |
0.4603 |
0.4723 |
0.5804 |
0.5309 |
0.6822 |
0.8508 |
0.7801 |
0.6838 |
0.6770 |
0.6124 |
0.8279 |
0.7530 |
0.6757 |
hs04 |
0.0562 |
0.0607 |
0.0659 |
0.0558 |
0.0649 |
0.0606 |
0.0400 |
0.1229 |
0.0625 |
0.0525 |
0.0552 |
0.0476 |
0.0539 |
0.0614 |
hs05 |
0.2969 |
0.2854 |
0.2561 |
0.4069 |
0.2570 |
0.2356 |
0.3152 |
0.2746 |
0.0713 |
0.2096 |
0.3858 |
0.2390 |
0.3035 |
0.2721 |
hs06 |
0.5307 |
0.9100 |
0.4853 |
0.9218 |
0.1252 |
0.3448 |
0.3642 |
0.8239 |
0.1253 |
0.2394 |
0.1125 |
0.0171 |
0.0557 |
0.3889 |
hs07 |
0.4196 |
0.8387 |
0.1698 |
0.1372 |
0.3626 |
0.4002 |
0.3668 |
0.1615 |
0.1711 |
0.0757 |
0.0481 |
0.0303 |
0.0510 |
0.2487 |
hs08 |
0.2000 |
0.2246 |
0.2499 |
0.6146 |
0.6591 |
0.5501 |
0.4785 |
0.6021 |
0.8024 |
0.7237 |
0.6372 |
0.6869 |
0.6498 |
0.5445 |
hs09 |
0.1728 |
0.0952 |
0.2293 |
0.0855 |
0.1002 |
0.1440 |
0.2134 |
0.3720 |
0.3030 |
0.3671 |
0.2610 |
0.2469 |
0.1972 |
0.2144 |
hs10 |
0.0004 |
0.0008 |
0.0011 |
0.0013 |
0.0015 |
0.0014 |
0.0012 |
0.0172 |
0.0024 |
0.0007 |
0.0017 |
0.0176 |
0.0345 |
0.0063 |
hs11 |
0.5898 |
0.5090 |
0.4109 |
0.1343 |
0.0396 |
0.0475 |
0.1156 |
0.5646 |
0.4972 |
0.8750 |
0.7717 |
0.9065 |
0.5791 |
0.4647 |
hs12 |
0.0541 |
0.3984 |
0.2059 |
0.0781 |
0.0388 |
0.1250 |
0.1021 |
0.9705 |
0.9969 |
0.5779 |
0.9083 |
0.7187 |
0.7490 |
0.4557 |
hs13 |
0.5670 |
0.1157 |
0.2708 |
0.1390 |
0.3344 |
0.1699 |
0.0988 |
0.2257 |
0.5926 |
0.1358 |
0.1966 |
0.0905 |
0.0892 |
0.2328 |
hs14 |
0.1245 |
0.0283 |
0.0248 |
0.0103 |
0.1919 |
0.2214 |
0.4887 |
0.5263 |
0.5690 |
0.0704 |
0.1314 |
0.0000 |
0.0027 |
0.1838 |
hs15 |
0.0772 |
0.1569 |
0.1797 |
0.1323 |
0.0615 |
0.0418 |
0.0543 |
0.0503 |
0.0474 |
0.0723 |
0.0632 |
0.0466 |
0.0350 |
0.0783 |
hs16 |
0.1666 |
0.4779 |
0.1319 |
0.1648 |
0.1684 |
0.0936 |
0.0240 |
0.0170 |
0.0373 |
0.0295 |
0.0132 |
0.0206 |
0.0923 |
0.1106 |
hs17 |
0.0131 |
0.0332 |
0.1095 |
0.0935 |
0.1715 |
0.1025 |
0.1907 |
0.6598 |
0.5383 |
0.3937 |
0.7140 |
0.9315 |
0.3238 |
0.3288 |
hs18 |
0.1458 |
0.1194 |
0.3687 |
0.6333 |
0.6566 |
0.3560 |
0.3156 |
0.4818 |
0.1508 |
0.9623 |
0.3207 |
0.3468 |
0.2000 |
0.3891 |
hs19 |
0.1338 |
0.0817 |
0.0963 |
0.1667 |
0.2667 |
0.3326 |
0.4585 |
0.5540 |
0.5630 |
0.4741 |
0.4778 |
0.5866 |
0.7820 |
0.3826 |
hs20 |
0.0790 |
0.0677 |
0.0715 |
0.0639 |
0.1278 |
0.1521 |
0.1094 |
0.0645 |
0.0827 |
0.0713 |
0.0479 |
0.0505 |
0.0201 |
0.0776 |
hs21 |
0.7373 |
0.5461 |
0.3662 |
0.4458 |
0.6509 |
0.4615 |
0.4715 |
0.2876 |
0.2824 |
0.3923 |
0.4791 |
0.4298 |
0.3797 |
0.4562 |
hs22 |
0.8220 |
0.9029 |
0.6715 |
0.6346 |
0.7783 |
0.7310 |
0.8636 |
0.9888 |
0.7592 |
0.5955 |
0.3281 |
0.2697 |
0.4654 |
0.6777 |
hs23 |
0.0400 |
0.0747 |
0.0410 |
0.1672 |
0.1066 |
0.3861 |
0.5177 |
0.3367 |
0.1669 |
0.1428 |
0.1132 |
0.4946 |
0.7180 |
0.2543 |
hs24 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0138 |
0.0043 |
0.0069 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0019 |
hs41 |
0.0118 |
0.0016 |
0.0482 |
0.0155 |
0.0091 |
0.0009 |
0.0019 |
0.0044 |
0.0013 |
0.0017 |
0.0081 |
0.0071 |
0.0010 |
0.0087 |
hs51 |
0.0000 |
0.0046 |
0.0011 |
0.0021 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
0.0007 |
hs52 |
0.0004 |
0.0001 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0005 |
0.0000 |
0.0002 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0001 |
0.0000 |
0.0001 |
G-L指数 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
简单平均 |
0.2264 |
0.2370 |
0.1830 |
0.2111 |
0.2117 |
0.2091 |
0.2404 |
0.3291 |
0.2780 |
0.2645 |
0.2477 |
0.2597 |
0.2421 |
加权平均 |
0.0248 |
0.0416 |
0.0478 |
0.0527 |
0.0407 |
0.0499 |
0.0596 |
0.0866 |
0.0558 |
0.0653 |
0.0679 |
0.0800 |
0.0993 |
解释变量及缩写 |
贸易对外开放度(X1) |
人均收入差异(X2) |
经济规模差异(X3) |
经济规模(X4) |
变量含义 |
对外贸易总额占GDP的比重 |
两国人均国民总收入的之差的绝对值 |
两国国内生产总值之差的绝对值 |
两国国内生产总值之和的平均值 |
理论预测符号 |
+ |
— |
— |
+ |
变量 |
检验类型 |
ADF统计量 |
10%显著性水平下的临界值 |
DW值 |
平稳性 |
LNY |
(C,0,3) |
-0.325885 |
-2.7822 |
2.507203 |
不平稳 |
△LNY |
(C,0,3) |
-2.670921 |
-2.8169 |
2.022036 |
不平稳 |
△2LNY |
(0,0,3) |
-3.167349 |
-1.6415 |
2.940273 |
平稳 |
LNX1 |
(C,0,3) |
-2.649180 |
-2.7822 |
2.430897 |
不平稳 |
△LNX1 |
(C,0,3) |
-0.257102 |
-2.8169 |
1.574552 |
不平稳 |
△2LNX1 |
(C,T,3) |
-7.739885 |
-3.6280 |
2.113569 |
平稳 |
LNX2 |
(C,0,3) |
-0.224653 |
-2.7822 |
1.707847 |
不平稳 |
△LNX2 |
(C,T,3) |
-3.202106 |
-4.1961 |
2.871395 |
不平稳 |
△2LNX2 |
(C,T,3) |
-2.520729 |
-2.8640 |
2.628248 |
平稳 |
LNX3 |
(C,0,3) |
1.419446 |
-2.7822 |
2.218630 |
不平稳 |
△LNX3 |
(C,T,3) |
0.853907 |
-4.1961 |
2.005454 |
不平稳 |
△2LNX3 |
(C,T,3) |
-9.349373 |
-3.6280 |
2.861837 |
平稳 |
LNX4 |
(C,0,3) |
5.431868 |
-2.7349 |
1.440196 |
不平稳 |
△LNX4 |
(C,0,3) |
-0.051755 |
-3.3350 |
2.067409 |
不平稳 |
△2LNX4 |
(C,0,3) |
-2.537682 |
-2.8640 |
2.500471 |
平稳 |
ADF Test Statistic |
-2.829191 |
1% Critical Value* |
-2.8270 |
|
5% Critical Value |
-1.9755 |
|
|
10% Critical Value |
-1.6321 |
|
LNX1 |
LNX2 |
LNX3 |
LNX4 |
LNX1 |
1.00 |
0.464557 |
0.875364 |
0.884595 |
LNX2 |
0.464557 |
1.00 |
0.554516 |
0.684480 |
LNX3 |
0.875364 |
0.554516 |
1.00 |
0.980105 |
LNX4 |
0.884595 |
0.684480 |
0.980105 |
1.00 |
ADF Test Statistic |
-2.725897 |
1% Critical Value* |
-2.9075 |
|
5% Critical Value |
-1.9835 |
|
|
10% Critical Value |
-1.6357 |
Null Hypothesis: |
Lags |
F-Statistic |
Probability |
LNX1 does not Granger Cause LNY |
1 |
3.68438 |
0.08713 |
LNY does not Granger Cause LNX1 |
1 |
2.29428 |
0.16415 |
LNX2 does not Granger Cause LNY |
2 |
0.22060 |
0.80827 |
LNY does not Granger Cause LNX2 |
2 |
19.4448 |
0.00239 |
LNX4 does not Granger Cause LNY |
3 |
5.46283 |
0.09839 |
LNY does not Granger Cause LNX4 |
3 |
1.45821 |
0.38202 |
上一篇:解析千年古镇皤滩森林景观规划设计
下一篇:浅谈从法院判决看交强险的发展